Proactive and Reactive Management of Non-Weather Capacity Disruption Events in the National Airspace System: A Flow Modeling and Design Approach

A primary function of air traffic flow management is to strategically shape traffic demand to match capacities (e.g., airport arrival/departure rate limits and Sector capacities), without imposing excessive delay. In the current United States National Airspace System (NAS), the disruptions modulating capacities and hence traffic management are predominantly weather events, including convection, winter weather, and high winds. However, during the next 15 years and beyond, it is likely that the air traffic system will be increasingly subject to man-made disruptions that impact traffic management, including 1) a growing frequency of cyberand physical-world security incidents, 2) commercial space operations, and 3) integration of high-altitude unmanned aircraft. Disruptions of these types have already begun to impact traffic control and management: for instance, the insider attack on the Chicago Air Route Traffic Control Center (ZAU) communication equipment during October 2014, and several recent commercial space launches and UAS-integration test scenarios. To date, such non-weather disruptions have had relatively contained and limited impact on air traffic system operations, but they will undoubtedly incur greater impact and cost in the near future as the airspace system becomes increasingly heterogeneous and cyberenabled. In consequence, paradigms for traffic management that account for non-weather disruptions will be needed in the near future.